Market Update for Table Grapes

Week of March 2 – March 8

With Peru’s grape exports now under 1 million weekly cartons, the industry will need to pay close attention to the numbers and timing of the Chilean grape season. Peru’s volume will continue to drop each week, with premium Autumn Crisp the main variety leaving the country. Over the past 4 years, Chilean growers in the central and southern zones have transitioned out of older varieties to the new preferred ones. This also means that their harvest cycles are changing. Sweet Globes and Autumn Crisp won’t peak until Week 12, and most new red seedless are starting now. We did see 2.6 million boxes exported week 8, but with Peru’s numbers dropping, we are still hovering around the 3 million box number that the U.S. market can easily absorb each week. This contributes to a continued stable market through March, with reasonable opportunities to promote fruit. April and May could have a different look about it, with 3 growing regions looking to take advantage of typically stronger pricing. Brazilian grape growers are no longer subjected to the 50% IEEPA tariffs with the new 10% global tariffs now in place, so they will also be looking to get back into the U.S. market in April. Brazil could easily send 400K boxes weekly, so we will have to see how that impacts the spot market. Jalisco, Mexico is projecting an April 15th start date, so that will add another wrinkle.

Red Seedless

Growers in Chile are about to face the new reality, as U.S. consumers have clearly made it known that they prefer green grapes. Exports of Chilean red grapes topped 1 million boxes week 8, almost equaling the number of green. Importers have been doing their best to move through volumes of Peruvian fruit, but Peru only topped 1 million boxes for 3 weeks since week 1, and still supply has outpaced demand. Chile will most likely top 1 million weekly boxes from now until week 14, so retailers should take advantage of very good promotional opportunities in March and April. Currently, the spot markets have a wide range, with weaker lots trading between $18.00 and $20.00 and very good fruit selling between $22.00 and $26.00, with size and variety being the determining factor. Don’t expect to see this change over the next two weeks, but we could see prices for incoming fresh Peruvian fruit top Chilean pricing by $2.00 to $4.00, because retailers still prefer Peru to Chile, if given the choice.

Green Seedless

As we have seen since the beginning of the import season, green seedless grapes have been flying out of cold storages. Even when Peru peaked with close to 2.5 million weekly boxes, the industry was able to absorb all that volume without the market falling out of bed. Last season, the single largest export week from Chile hit 1.8 million boxes and it’s unlikely to see exports ever top 2 million this year. This all points to a very stable green market in March and with peak volumes not hitting the U.S. until the end of the month, April should also support reasonable pricing. Currently, Chile is projected to be down in total volumes by 10% and with the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, many growers are divesting into other markets. The U.S. market needs 2 million boxes of green grapes weekly to meet the growing demand, and the forecast seems to come up short of that benchmark. Currently, premium Peruvian Autumn Crisp are selling from $36.00 to as high as $42.00 and we are likely to see that market tick even higher as volumes from Peru are declining each week. The very best Chilean greens are holding firm, trading between $26.00 and $30.00, with remaining Peruvian Sweet Globes selling between $28.00 and $32.00. History tells us that in March, green grape prices drop and retailers typically promote heavily, but the times are changing and the window for peak green seedless volumes into the U.S. has moved.